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We have no interest in promoting specific shares, commodities, structured funds or political views.Our only interest is the accuracy of our models, meaning you can be assured of unbiased information.As shown below, the pace of recovery in the current cycle remains considerably below that of the other long expansions.As of the second quarter of 2017, these expenditures were only 8 percent above their level at the 2007-09 recession’s trough.

Note that the recovery in discretionary services spending in the past couple of years has been faster than previously thought, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) annual revision of the national income accounts, which has upwardly revised those expenditures since the beginning of 2015.Some economists in the United States object to characterizing it as a recession since there were no two consecutive quarters of negative growth.After the relatively mild 1990 recession ended in early 1992, the country hit a belated unemployment rate peak of 7.8% in mid-1992.In the first four years of the expansion, progress in recovering from the decline was halting.But since the middle of 2013, recovery has been steadier, with the result that discretionary services expenditures in the second quarter of this year exceeded their previous peak.The early 2000s recession was a decline in economic activity which mainly occurred in developed countries.The recession affected the European Union during 20 and the United States in 20.The Bank gathers and shares regional economic intelligence to inform our community and policy makers, and promotes sound financial and economic decisions through community development and education programs. Even so, average growth in this expansion—a 2.1 percent annual rate—has been extraordinarily weak.The current economic expansion is now the third-longest expansion in U. history (based on National Bureau of Economic Research [NBER] dating of U. In this post, I return to previous analysis on a specific portion of consumer spending—household discretionary services expenditures—that has displayed unusual weakness in the current expansion (see this post for the definition of discretionary versus nondiscretionary services expenditures, and these posts from 20 for previous updates).The views expressed in this post are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the author.

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